Archive | Sectors

Quotable Value Ltd’s monthly chart of house price movements, out today, shows Auckland going from a just-positive 0.4% shift over the 12 months to November, to a just-negative 0.4% shift for the December year.

Nationally, the picture remains more positive than in Auckland, as it has been for the 2 years since the Auckland charts stalled (with the exception of the southern suburbs on the isthmus & the north-west of old Manukau – QV still works on the local government boundaries abandoned in 2010).

QV’s average residential value for the Auckland region in December 2018 was $1,048,145. Back one year it was $1,050,647. Back 2 years it was $1,047,179.

In the north of the region, prices in Rodney, and the more rural north of Rodney, have held up, while pricing on the Hibiscus Coast remains weak, declining in the last 3 months. That weakness is also apparent on the North Shore (but not North Harbour) & the isthmus, but not the Hauraki Gulf islands (on the usual thin results). Prices in the south of the region have stayed positive over both 3 & 12 months.

Outside Auckland, the catchup continues – Dunedin’s QV index has risen 11.2% over 12 months, Invercargill’s 11.6%, Gisborne’s 10.7% and, on the northern border, Kaipara’s has risen 10.8% (on low numbers, as usual).

Nick Goodall, head of research for CoreLogic NZ Ltd, which contributes analysis for the QV reports, said: “Responsible bank lending standards remain and have been a defining factor of the property market in 2018. However, solid market foundations also continue, both of which shape our outlook for the market to perform similarly to last year.

“These foundations include low mortgage interest rates and a relaxation of loan:value ratio (LVR) rules for both owner-occupiers & investors, still-high (albeit slowing) population growth, a strong labour market & a remaining deficit of new properties being built, despite very encouraging consent figures.

“Counteracting these factors are proposed tax changes for investment property, potentially an increased requirement for banks to hold greater capital against their loans, and the elimination of foreign buyers in the New Zealand property market.

“These all contribute to our expectation of growth rates remaining constrained, while not necessarily doing enough to see values drop.”

“In Auckland in particular, there’s still a deficit of supply from years of under-building, which is likely to guard against a significant drop in values, given still-strong population growth.

“The lending environment will remain another key market fundamental. We’ve just seen a loosening of the LVR restrictions and, with interest rates likely to stay low, certainly in the short term, we’re in a relatively accommodating position, which will allow for a continuation of modest property growth.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for December. The first percentage is for the 3 months to December, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara & the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Auckland region: $1,048,145, 0.1%, -0.4%, 92.4%
Total NZ: $682,938, 1.2%, 3.2%, 65.1%

The Auckland region:
Rodney: $950,940, 0.1%, 1.1%, 62.1%
North: $973,800, 0.6%, 1.3%, 62.1%
Hibiscus Coast: $929,006, -0.4%, 0.8%, 58.2%
North Shore: $1,212,664, -0.3%, -1.1%, 87.9%
Coastal: $1,383,491, -0.4%, -1.6%, 83.6%
Onewa: $969,252, -1.1%, -1.3%, 95.4%
North Harbour: $1,194,389, 1.0%, 0.2%, 96.6%
Waitakere: $822,906, -0.2%, -0.2%, 94.1%
Auckland City: $1,233,311, -0.1%, -1.0%, 98.1%
Central: $1,082,656, 1.1%, -0.2%, 90.1%
East: $1,547,702, -1.1%, -1.7%, 94.2%
South: $1,095,532, -0.4%, -0.5%, 103.5%
Islands: $1,166,500, 6.5%, 0.5%, 82.5%
Manukau: $906,658, 0.9%, 1.2%, 98.1%
East: $1,156,353, 0.3%, 0.5%, 94.0%
Central: $707,726, 1.2%, 1.7%, 88.3%
North-west: $784,662, 1.3%, 2.0%, 112.4%
Papakura: $701,230, 0.2%, 0.6%, 94.9%
Franklin: $673,679, 0.5%, 1.1%, 70.3%

On the borders & down country:
Whangarei: $563,201, 5.3%, 12.8%, 42.1%
Kaipara: $550,378, 1.3%, 10.8%, 38.7%
Waikato: $486,980, 1.8%, 6.0%, 60.9%
Hamilton: $570,886, -0.2%, 5.0%, 57.9%
Tauranga: $720,645, 1.6%, 3.9%, 49.7%
Gisborne: $324,691, -0.2%, 10.7%, 9.2%
Wellington region: $688,074, 3.2%, 7.8%, 51.0%
Christchurch: $496,562, 0.5%, 0.6%, 30.9%
Queenstown-Lakes: $1,193,225, 2.0%, 7.3%, 73.5%
Dunedin: $434,903, 3.5%, 11.2%, 51.9%
Invercargill: $286,275, 3.2%, 11.6%, 29.8%.

Attribution: QV & CoreLogic releases.