Archive | Quotable Value

Mixed picture for Auckland house prices – but a widening gulf between Auckland & rest of NZ

Housing value changes around the Auckland region over the last 3 months look like this: 3 of the old council areas up, 3 down and one no change.

The rolling quarterly measure by Quotable Value Ltd, released yesterday, shows a 3-month shift exceeding 1% either way in only 2 places in Auckland – the central city up 2.6%, the Hauraki Gulf islands down 2.3% (on low counts).

On the super-city’s northern border, Kaipara’s valuation rose 5.1% on a rolling 3-monthly basis. On the southern border, the Waikato District’s valuation rose 2.4%.

Around the country, the latest 3-monthly figures are a mixture. What is clear, though, is that an increased margin has been cemented in place between Auckland (excluding the fringes of Rodney & Franklin) and the rest of the country.

You can see that from the changes in value since the previous price peak at the end of 2007, as the global financial crisis was about to start taking effect.

What was a 32% lead for Auckland compared to the national average at the end of 2007 has stretched out to a 56% lead – even after Auckland’s slowdown over the last 3 years. That’s not a comparison between Auckland and the rest of the country, but between Auckland and the whole country. Auckland v the rest would be a much wider margin, but I don’t have that figure.

In the 3 months to June 2015, the average value for the old Auckland City – the isthmus suburbs – topped $1 million dollars, reaching $1,003,144. It’s now up another 24% at $1,245,086, exactly 100% above the level at the end of 2007. In the eastern suburbs of the isthmus the average value now is $1,561,019, also up 24% since June 2015 but down 0.4% on the 3-monthly basis and showing a 95.9% increase since the end of 2007.

On the Auckland region’s boundaries, Kaipara is showing a 35% gain since 2007 and Waikato 60%. Provincial cities – and Wellington & Christchurch – show increases since 2007 below 50%, in some cases well below.

At the end of 2007, Auckland’s average value was $511,188. Nationally, the average sale price eased from $393,198 in November that year to $388,253 in December.

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for May. The first percentage is for the 3 months to May, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara and the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Auckland region, $1,054,729, 0.1%, 1.0%, 93.0%
Rodney, $959,555, 0.9%, -0.1%, 63.6%
North, $981,881, 0.9%, -1.2%, 63.5%
Hibiscus Coast, $938,303, 0.8%, 0.9%, 59.7%
North Shore, $1,229,088, -0.2%, 2.6%, 90.5%
Coastal, $1,405,224, -0.5%, 2.6%, 86.5%
Onewa, $973,519, 0.1%, 2.1%, 96.3%
North Harbour, $1,219,645, 0.5%, 3.0%, 100.7%
Waitakere, $826,087, 0.1%, 0.0%, 94.8%
Auckland City, $1,245,086, 0.5%, 1.9%, 100.0%
Central, $1,104,053, 2.6%, 2.7%, 93.9%
East, $1,561,019, -0.4%, 2.4%, 95.9%
South, $1,099,787, 0.4%, 0.3%, 104.3%
Islands, $1,154,849, -2.3%, 7.5%, 80.7%
Manukau, $900,190, -0.3%, -0.2%, 96.7%
East, $1,156,963, 0.1%, -1.0%, 94.1%
Central, $693,683, -1.1%, 1.4%, 84.5%
North-west, $776,684, -0.3%, 0.3%, 110.2%
Papakura, $702,157, 0.0%, 2.7%, 95.2%
Franklin, $667,803, -0.9%, -0.5%, 68.8%

Northern border, down country & nationally:

Whangarei, $524,268, 2.7%, 8.5%, 32.3%
Kaipara, $534,005, 5.1%, 3.8%, 34.6%
Waikato, $483,179, 2.4%, 8.8%, 59.6%
Hamilton, $553,873, 1.0%, 3.1%, 53.2%
Tauranga, $700,744, -0.9%, 2.6%, 45.5%
Gisborne, $309,961, 2.7%, 10.1%, 4.3%
Wellington, $754,924, -1.2%, 3.8%, 41.8%
Christchurch, $495,148, 0.1%, 0.0%, 30.5%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,153,155, 3.5%, 9.6%, 67.7%
Dunedin, $408,827, 4.0%, 9.4%, 42.8%
Invercargill, $264,630, 1.8%, 8.8% 20.0%
Total NZ, $677,996, 0.8%, 6.9%, 63.6%

Attribution: QV release.

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House price catchup continues outside Auckland, where they’re static

Quotable Value Ltd’s latest house price index shows prices outside Auckland & Christchurch continued to play catchup in the 3 months to April, while in Auckland the value movements were small for both the last 3 months & last 12 months.

Longer term, the fundamental difference between Auckland and the rest of the country is stark. With the exception of Queenstown, which is vying with Auckland’s eastern suburbs & coastal North Shore for the most expensive spot, values have risen less than 50% since the start of the global financial crisis in late 2007 in all but half a dozen areas around the rest of the country.

In Auckland, house values in the largely rural extremities of Franklin & Rodney (but including the urban Pukekohe & Hibiscus Coast) have gained less than 70% over those 10 years. But on the isthmus, North Shore & ritzier areas of Manukau, and also in the cheaper patches of Waitakere, Manukau & Papakura, the 10-year gains are still mostly in the high 90% region.

In north-west Manukau and the southern suburbs on the isthmus, the gains still exceed 100%.

Quotable Value said the nationwide rise over the last 3 months was 1.1%, and 7.6% for the year, reduced to 6.4% when adjusted for inflation.

For the Auckland region, values dropped 0.3% over the last quarter, were up 0.8% over the year, but dropped 0.3% over the year when adjusted for inflation.

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for April. The first percentage is for the 3 months to April, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara and the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Rodney, $958,130, 0.1%, 1.1%, 63.4%
North, $977,649, 0.9%, -0.9%, 62.8%
Hibiscus Coast, $939,821, 1.3%, 1.0%, 60.0%
North Shore, $1,233,394, 0.4%, 3.2%, 91.1%
Coastal, $1,418,758, 0.6%, 3.6%, 88.3%
Onewa, $971,425, -0.6%, 2.4%, 95.8%
North Harbour, $1,214,201, 1.2%, 3.0%, 99.8%
Waitakere, $824,631, 0.2%, -0.2%, 94.5%
Auckland City, $1,232,850, -1.0%, 0.8%, 98.0%
Central, $1,086,879, 0.8%, 0.6%, 90.8%
East, $1,550,784, -1.6%, 1.8%, 94.6%
South, $1,090,785, -1.3%, -0.7%, 102.6%
Gulf islands, $1,142,511, -2.1%, 7.6%, 78.7%
Manukau, $900,095, -0.4%, -0.3%, 96.6%
East, $1,152,825, -0.7%, -1.7%, 93.4%
Central, $697,708, -0.8%, 2.4%, 85.6%
North-west, $778,373, 0.3%, 0.3%, 110.7%
Papakura, $701,123, 0.1%, 1.1%, 94.9%
Franklin, $670,785, -0.4%, 0.2%, 69.6%
Auckland region, $1,051,687, -0.3%, 0.8%, 92.4%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $512,326, 0.5%, 7.2%, 29.3%
Kaipara, $524,681,3.5%, 6.4%, 32.3%
Hamilton, $554,452, 1.7%, 2.9%, 53.4%
Tauranga, $704,183, 0.8%, 3.8%, 46.3%
Gisborne, $310,283, 4.7%, 10.9%, 11.3%
Wellington region, $642,156, 1.2%, 6.6%, 40.9%
Christchurch, $493,346, -0.2%, -0.5%, 30.0%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,130,320, 1.2%, 8.5%, 64.4%
Dunedin, $404,539, 3.1%, 8.8%, 41.3%
Invercargill, $264,642, 3.8%, 10.5%, 20.0%
NZ, $678,856, 1.1%, 7.6%, 63.8%

Link: Full QV house price index April 2018

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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Big house index rises becoming rarer

Quotable Value Ltd is still looking for large shifts in house prices to highlight, and there are still some sprinkled around the country.

However, my impression from the QV monthly index figures out last Thursday is that Auckland is at a standstill or sliding slowly, and outside Auckland the catchup is slowing.

The norm for house price escalation is for it to start in central Auckland, spiral around the suburbs and then spin out to the rest of the country.

Smaller & more distant centres such as Gisborne & Invercargill, and many patches of rural New Zealand, will feel little of the rise but may feel some of the subsequent easing. They might regain a little of the margin that expanded when Auckland was experiencing its sharp escalation in prices, but they won’t catch up.

Quotable Value found the “positive” of a 7.3% national value rise over the last 12 months, dropping to 5.6% when adjusted for inflation. In Auckland, QV found values ticking up by 0.4% over the last 3 months & 1% over 12 months, dropping to 0.6% for the year when adjusted for inflation.

The value change over much of Auckland was negative for the last 3 months, and for the last 12 months in a couple of areas.

Regional development could change focus

One factor which might alter the picture favourably for provincial New Zealand is the Government’s new regional development fund, but true success there will only occur with a deepseated change in mindset to create business & job opportunities outside Auckland, not a flurry of cash handouts to support ideas that might have some small success.

When you consider that a 30-minute journey in Auckland will now take 90 minutes at many times of the day, much of that parked in traffic congestion, it should dawn on an increasing number of people how irrational it would be to keep expanding the urban frame to encourage more growth on Auckland’s outskirts.

The new housing on Auckland’s fringes might be marginally cheaper than in suburbs closer to the centre, but transport costs will be higher – unless smart new public transport miraculously appears, or new job centres are developed on those fringes. Some of the transport improvement is coming, but the job centres aren’t.

Success in spreading economic development outside Auckland would lift house prices outside Auckland as well, paid for by people with better incomes & lower costs, but at the moment provincial house prices are following the traditional cyclical pattern.

QV roundup (and you can see that in more detail on the link at the foot of this story)

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said: “Residential property value growth remains subdued compared to recent years, but March has seen the usual seasonal pickup in sales volumes & activity.

“This has seen nationwide annual value growth rise to 7.3%, which is the fastest rate in 9 months, but sales volumes are still lower than usual for March.

“Of the main centres, Dunedin leads the way with annual growth of 9.4%, while the Auckland & Christchurch housing markets have seen little value movement over the past year.

“Annual value growth across the Auckland region has slowed from 12.3% in March 2017 to just 1.0% in March 2018, and Christchurch is down 0.6% over the past year.

“The rate of growth has also slowed in the Wellington region, from 21.2% in March 2017 to 8.2% in March 2018.

“The Tauranga & Hamilton markets are still rising, but again at much slower rates than the previous 2 years.

“It’s the regions that continue to see the highest value growth, driven by demand from people looking for more affordable homes or investment properties outside of the main centres.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for March. The first percentage is for the 3 months to March, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara and the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Rodney, $949,896, 0.9%, 1.0%, 61.9%
North, $979,858, 1.9%, 1.6%, 63.1%
Hibiscus Coast, $920,361, -0.2%, 0.0%, 56.7%
North Shore, $1,235,905, 0.8%, 2.9%, 91.5%
Coastal, $1,422,283, 1.2%, 3.4%, 88.7%
Onewa, $971,511, -1.1%, 2.0%, 95.9%
North Harbour, $1,218,876, 2.2%, 2.9%, 100.6%
Waitakere, $824,848, 0.1%, -0.5%, 94.5%
Auckland City, $1,244,218, -0.1%, 1.2%, 99.9%
Central, $1,095,224, 0.9%, 3.0%, 92.3%
East, $1,566,924, -0.5%, 1.6%, 96.6%
South, $1,097,888, -0.3%, -1.0%, 104.0%
Gulf islands, $1,157,589, -0.3%, 8.5%, 81.1%
Manukau, $903,135, 0.3%, 97.3%
East, $1,159,422, 0.7%, -0.6%, 94.5%
Central, $699,099, 0.5%, 2.6%, 86.0%
North-west, $778,721, 1.2%, 0.4%, 110.8%
Papakura, $703,258, 0.9%, 1.9%, 95.5%
Franklin, $675,378, 1.3%, 1.2%, 70.7%
Auckland region, $1,055,992, 0.4%, 1.0%, 93.2%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $517,302, 3.6%, 9.6%, 30.5%
Kaipara, $521,642, 5.1%, 10.7%, 31.5%
Hamilton, $555,549, 2.2%, 4.3%, 53.7%
Tauranga, $706,922, 1.9%, 4.5%, 46.8%
Gisborne, $306,098, 4.3%, 10.6%, 3.0%
Wellington region, $644,567, 2.6%, 8.2%, 41.4%
Christchurch, $494,117, 0.1%, -0.6%, 30.2%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,120,905, 0.8%, 7.5%, 63.0%
Dunedin, $398,120, 1.8%, 9.4%, 39.1%
Invercargill, $261,762, 2.1%, 10.4%, 18.7%
NZ, $677,618, 1.2%, 7.3%, 63.5%

Link: Full March house price index

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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QV sees slight changes in house prices

Quotable Value Ltd’s term for change in residential prices this month is “slightly” – even when it’s a lot, and even when this is about valuation rather than the always positive patter of agency.

According to QV in its monthly house price index release out today, the nationwide average house value was $672,645 at the end of February, up $1114 from $671,531 at the end of January. The increase over the last year was 6.5%, dropping “slightly” to 4.9% when adjusted for inflation. The difference between 6.5% & 4.9% is 160 basis points – 25% less (or 33% more) in a period of supposedly weak inflation.

For Auckland, QV’s “slightly” really was slight – a 0.8% ($8207) rise in average value from 3 months ago to $1,053,948, a period when the declines in Auckland values were limited to the central & eastern parts of the isthmus and the Onewa area of the North Shore.

Auckland’s rise in values over 12 months was 1.0%, reduced to 0.6% (40% less, or 67% more) when adjusted for inflation. QV said the 1% gain over 12 months was slight, as the slowest annual rate of growth since last August.

Unsurprisingly, the upward price spiral began in central Auckland and also slowed first in Auckland, as usually happens. The rest of the country plays catch-up, settling to relative positions according to the differing wealth & economic activity around the regions.

That might change if the new government succeeds in shifting jobs – and some of the population growth – away from Auckland, something the previous government made a token effort at trying last year. The new government’s effort so far is also token, with no indication of how real change might occur.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said “Low interest rates and the easing in the LVR (loan:value ratio) restrictions has seen many more first-homebuyers active in areas where they can still afford to enter the market, while some investors also appear to be becoming more active now they need a slightly lower deposit.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for February. The first percentage is for the 3 months to February, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara and the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Auckland region, $1,053,948, 0.8%, 1.0%, 92.9%
Rodney, $951,356, 1.7%, 1.5%, 62.2%
North, $973,369, 1.8%, 1.7%, 62.1%
Hibiscus Coast, $930,503, 1.6%, 1.3%, 58.4%
North Shore, $1,231,179, 1.5%, 2.9%, 90.8%
Coastal, $1,412,965, 2.3%, 3.6%, 87.5%
Onewa, $972,478, -0.2%, 1.0%, 96.1%
North Harbour, $1,214,172, 2.0%, 3.2%, 99.8%
Waitakere, $825,362, 0.5%, 0.8%, 94.7%
Auckland City, $1,239,086, -0.2%, 1.2%, 99.0%
Central, $1,076,464, -0.9%, 1.3%, 89.0%
East, $1,566,834, -0.2%, 1.7%, 96.6%
South, $1,095,706, 0.1%, -0.4%, 103.5%
Islands, $1,181,685, 2.3%, 11.8%, 84.8%
Manukau, $902,791, 1.3%, 0.0%, 97.2%
East, $1,155,919, 1.0%, -0.3%, 93.9%
Central, $701,488, 2.0%, 2.4%, 86.6%
North-west, $779,011, 1.1%, -0.8%, 110.9%
Papakura, $702,318, 1.5%, 2.3%, 95.2%
Franklin, $674,114, $2.2%, 1.6%, 70.4%

Northern border, down country & national:
Whangarei, $510,409, 2.1%, 9.1%, 28.8%
Kaipara, $507,906, 3.2%, 7.9%, 28.0%
Hamilton, $548,417, $0.8%, 3.1%, 51.7%
Tauranga, $706,825, 2.8%, 4.9%, 46.8%
Wellington, $764,020, 1.9%, 7.6%, 43.5%
Christchurch, $494,563, 0.1%, -0.8%, 30.4%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,114,358, 0.8%,7.2%, 62.0%
All New Zealand, $672,645, 1.2%, 6.5%, 62.3%

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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Inflation adjustment turns Auckland house price rise into a fall

Quotable Value Ltd’s rolling 3-monthly calculation of its house price index shows Auckland values picked up more in January. Nationally, the picture was mixed.

For the Auckland region, the index rose 1.2% in the 3 months to December and 1.6% in the 3 months to January, but only 0.7% over the 12 months to January.

QV’s Auckland property consultant, William Liew, said: “January, as is often the case, was relatively quiet due to the holiday period. The signs do suggest that the heat has been taken out of the market and buyers are showing less urgency.

“We have also seen the ongoing impacts of the loan:value ratio (LVR) restrictions, changes of lending criteria and uncertainly with the change of government, which have contributed to a cooling in the Auckland market.”

QV general manager David Nagel said: “January has seen values continue to rise in many places around New Zealand, but values have dropped in others, and in general activity has been slower in many places over the holiday season.”

Adjusted for inflation, the Auckland rise of 0.7% over 12 months turns into a 0.9% fall, and the national rise of 6.4% is reduced to 4.7%.

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for January. The first percentage is for the 3 months to January, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries (councils marked in bold); Kaipara and the Hauraki Gulf Islands, as usual, have low counts:

Auckland region, $1,054,574, 1.6%, 0.7%, 93.0%
Rodney, $947,856, 1.5%, 1.5%, 61.6%
North, $969,140, 1.5%, 0.8%, 61.3%
Hibiscus Coast, $927,897, 1.5%, 2.1%, 58.0%
North Shore, $1,228,920, 2.3%, 1.2%, 90.4%
Coastal, $1,410,765, 3.5%, 1.7%, 87.2%
Onewa, $977,381, -0.4%, 0.6%, 97.0%
North Harbour, $1,199,720, 2.6%, 0.8%, 97.4%
Waitakere, $822,871, 0.5%, -1.6%, 94.1%
Auckland City, $1,245,682, 1.8%, 1.7%, 100.1%
Central, $1,078,359, -0.1%, 1.2%, 89.3%
East, $1,576,640, 2.7%, 2.9%, 97.8%
South, $1,104,859, 1.3%, -0.3%, 105.2%
Islands, $1,166,941, 4.7%, 12.6%, 82.5%
Manukau, $904,158, 1.2%, 0.3%, 97.5%
East, $1,161,381, 0.9%, 0.3%, 94.9%
Central, $703,189, 1.9%, 2.4%, 87.1%
North-west, $776,208, 1.6%, -0.6%, 110.1%
Papakura, $700,283, 2.3%, 2.4%, 94.7%
Franklin, $673,514, 1.2%, 2.0%, 70.3%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $509,857, 2.9%, 10.0%, 28.7%
Kaipara, $506,745, 0.3%, 9.2%, 27.7%
Hamilton, $544,935, 0.3%, 2.6%, 50.7%
Tauranga, $698,875, 1.7%, 3.9%, 45.2%
Wellington, $764,560, 3.5%, 8.9%, 43.60%
Christchurch, $494,459, 0.8%, -0.6%, 30.3%
Queenstown Lakes, $1,116,673, 2.2%, 8.1%, 62.4%
All New Zealand, $671,531, 3.8%, 6.4%, 62.1%

Link: Full QV house price index January 2018

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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QV says rise in average Auckland home value just $4583 for year

The average residential property value rose by 6.6% ($41,660) nationally last year, according to Quotable Value Ltd’s index.

In Auckland, the rise was just $4583 (0.4%) for the year.

In a few places the movement over the year was downward, including a 0.1% fall in Christchurch.

QV recaps

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said the general trend was for slowing in the rate of growth due to loan:value ratio (LVR) speed limits, stricter retail bank lending criteria & uncertainty ahead of the election, but in some areas values rose rapidly while decreasing in others.

Ms Rush said sales volumes fell every month from the 2016 figures. From February-October the drop in sales exceeded 20%/month, before picking up in November, when a post-election late spring surge saw them jump to just 10% lower than November 2016 levels.

“A slowdown in the rate of value growth in the housing market that began in the latter part of 2016 with the introduction of LVR speed limits, requiring a 40% deposit by investors, continued throughout 2017.

“The frenzy in the market of the previous 3 years, induced by high numbers of investors in the market, subsided and we saw a return to more normal levels of activity in housing markets around the country.

“By October, nationwide annual value growth had slowed to 3.9%, the lowest rate of growth seen in 5 years, and for the Auckland region it slowed to -0.6%, the slowest annual rate of growth seen there since Mach 2011.

“High prices, constraints on finance caused by tightening in retail banks lending criteria and higher deposit requirements removed many buyers from the market and sales volumes plummeted.

“Potential housing policy changes in the lead-up to the election also caused uncertainty and people took a wait-&-see approach, causing activity to slow dramatically over the winter quarter, and this resulted in value decreases in many areas.

“The usual annual spring surge was very slow to arrive and listing levels and market activity did not pick up until November and December and this can be seen in both sales volumes and value growth recovering in the last two months of the year.

“The annual rate of value growth recovered to 6.4% in November & 6.6% in December, and sales volumes for November lifted 21.0% higher than in October. This was partly due to buyers delaying purchasing until the election result was decided, and may also have been in part due to some buyers racing to purchase before the new foreign buyers’ ban in December.

“The slight easing in LVR restrictions by the Reserve Bank due this month is likely to help improve activity & demand in the market as we move through the summer months.

“Low interest rates, relatively high net migration & lack of supply means market drivers remain, and we are likely to see values hold for the most part during 2018 in the main centres, but the trend of lower rates of growth is likely to continue.

“However, areas where investors were previously very active may continue to see values drop back where prices remain too high for first-homebuyers, particularly in Auckland, Hamilton & surrounding districts.

“Some regional areas may continue to see stronger value growth than the main centres during the year.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for December. The first percentage is for the 3 months to December, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,051,762, 1.2%, 0.4%, 92.5%
Rodney, $941,029, 0.1%, 1.3%, 60.4%
North, $961,471, 1.6%, 0.4%, 60.1%
Hibiscus Coast, $921,890, -1.7%, 2.0%, 57.0%
North Shore, $1,226,509, 2.6%, 0.7%, 90.1%
Coastal, $1,405,509, 3.1%, 0.7%, 86.5%
Onewa, $981,844, 2.1%, 0.6%, 97.9%
North Harbour, $1,192,164, 2.1%, 0.6%, 96.2%
Waitakere, $824,271, 1.0%, -1.9%, 94.4%
Auckland City, $1,245,536, 1.6%, 2.2%, 100.1%
Central, $1,085,314, 0.6%, 2.2%, 90.6%
East, $1,575,133, 2.8%, 3.6%, 97.7%
South, $1,100,710, 0.1%, -0.4%, 104.5%
Islands (low volume), $1,161,110, 6.6%, 13.7%, 81.6%
Manukau, $895,606, -0.3%, -1.0%, 95.7%
East, $1,150,996, -0.7%, -0.9%, 93.1%
Central, $695,724, 1.1%, 1.1%, 85.1%
North-west, $769,615, -0.3%, -1.5%, 108.3%
Papakura, $696,713, 2.6%, 2.2%, 93.7%
Franklin, $666,676, 0.5%, 1.0%, 68.5%

Northern border, down country & national:

Far North, $421,582, 3.0%, 11.8%, 5.9%
Kaipara (low volume), $496,551, -3.7%, 6.2%, 25.2%
Hamilton, $543,446, -0.5%, 1.6%, 50.3%
Tauranga, $693,725, 1.0%, 3.2%, 44.1%
Gisborne, $293,346, -0.6%, 8.9%, -1.3%
Wellington region, $628,450, 3.6%, 9.4%, 37.9%
Christchurch, $493,706, 0.4%, -0.1%, 30.1%
Dunedin, $391,098, 2.7%, 10.4%, 36.6%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,111,995, 3.0%, 8.8%, 61.7%
Total NZ, $669,565, 3.6%, 6.6%, 61.6%

Link to full index: QV house price index for December 2017

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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QV house price index shows uptick around Auckland

Average house values recorded by Quotable Value Ltd (QV) for the last 2 months, and rolling 3-monthly percentage shifts through to October & November, show a barely perceptible upward tick in Auckland in November.

Below, I’ve listed a comparison of average values around Auckland in the last 2 months, along with rolling 3-monthly shifts through to October & November.

Secondly, I’ve listed latest average values in Auckland and for a spread of other places around the country, along with QV’s index movements for the last 3 months, 12 months and since the market’s previous peak at the end of 2007. You can check QV’s full index from the link at the foot of the page, but note that QV puts 12 months ahead of 3 months, then goes back to the 10-year figure. I switch the first 2 columns every month, so the latest 3-monthly figure comes first.

In QV’s 2 graphs you can see the levelling off in Auckland since mid-year, and how areas around Auckland (the pre-2010 council areas) have tracked in the last 5 years.

And last, you can read the QV commentaries nationally & for Auckland.

The recent upward shift

For the first set of figures below, I’ve taken QV’s most recent rolling 3-monthly changes to show more clearly the recent upward shift in Auckland, which followed a spreading over several months of plateauing, then of slight decline.

The figures in this set compare the average value in November with that in October (in brackets), and the rolling 3-monthly movements to November, with the 3 months to October in brackets.

Quotable Value’s average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It’s not an average or median sales price, which the Real Estate Institute and Auckland agency Barfoot & Thompson use in their monthly calculations. Those measures only take into account what happens to have sold in the period.

All up, there are 20 statistical divisions – the region, under that the 7 cities & districts which formed the super-city in 2010 and which statisticians generally still use, and under those 7 a geographic breakdown in 4 of the old council areas.

In the 3 months to October, 15 of the 20 showed declines in value. Roll through to the 3 months to November, and only 7 showed declines.

The average dollar value shows 15 up from October to November, 5 down.

If you look only at the most local areas, ignoring the regional & whole old council figures (but including Waitakere, Papakura & Franklin, which don’t have further breakdowns), you’ll find 5 down & 10 up in the latest 3 months, whereas in the 3 months to October 10 were down and 5 were up.

Auckland region, $1,045,741 ($1,038,722), 0.4% (-0.5%)
Rodney, $935,590 ($933,909), -1.1% (-1.7%)
North, $956,318 ($954,769), -0.6% (-1.8%)
Hibiscus Coast, $916,063 ($913,845), -1.6% (-1.5%)
North Shore, $1,212,617 ($1,201,452), 1.0% (-0.1%)
Coastal, $1,380,575 ($1,362,746), 0.5% (-1.3%)
Onewa, $974,440 ($981,196), 1.8% (3.0%)
North Harbour, $1,190,355 ($1,168,764), 0.9% (-1.0%)
Waitakere, $821,105 ($818,706), 0.6% (-0.1%)
Auckland City, $1,241,504 ($1,223,913), 0.7% (-0.9%)
Central, $1,086,373 ($1,079,721), 0.2% (-0.3%)
East, $1,570,354 ($1,534,549), 1.8% (-0.7%)
South, $1,094,265 ($1,090,843), -0.6% (-1.4%)
Islands (low volume), $1,155,463 ($1,114,609), 3.5% (0.8%)
Manukau, $891,394 ($893,580), -0.9% (-0.5%)
East, $1,144,569 ($1,151,198), -1.9% (-1.3%)
Central, $687,444 ($690,284), 0.7% (0.5%)
North-west, $770,341 ($764,261), -0.3% (-0.4%)
Papakura, $692,175 ($684,268), 3.9% (1.3%)
Franklin, $659,650 ($665,843), 0.5% (1.1%)


Below, the dollar figure is the average value for November. The first percentage is for the 3 months to November, the second is for the last 12 months (QV switches those around in its tables) and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,045,741, 0.4%, -0.5%, 91.4%
Rodney, $935,590, -1.1%, 1.3%, 59.5%
North, $956,318, -0.6%, 0.7%, 59.2%
Hibiscus Coast, $916,063, -1.6%, 2.4%, 56.0%
North Shore, $1,212,617, 1.0%, -1.0%, 87.9%
Coastal, $1,380,575, 0.5%, -1.5%, 83.2%
Onewa, $974,440, 1.8%, -1.0%, 96.5%
North Harbour, $1,190,355, 0.9%, 0.2%, 95.9%
Waitakere, $821,105, 0.6%, -2.9%, 93.7%
Auckland City, $1,241,504, 0.7%, 1.6%, 99.4%
Central, $1,086,373, 0.2%, 3.0%, 90.8%
East, $1,570,354, 1.8%, 3.3%, 97.1%
South, $1,094,265, -0.6%, -1.9%, 103.3%
Islands (low volume), $1,155,463, 3.5%, 12.2%, 80.7%
Manukau, $891,394, -0.9%, -1.6%, 94.7%
East, $1,144,569, -1.9%, -2.0%, 92.0%
Central, $687,444, 0.7%, -1.3%, 82.9%
North-west, $770,341, -0.3%, -0.3%, 108.5%
Papakura, $692,175, 3.9%, 1.8%, 92.4%
Franklin, $659,650, 0.5%, 1.8%, 66.8%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $499,955, 0.5%, 9.4%, 26.2%
Kaipara (low volume), $492,074, -4.3%, 13.0%, 24.0%
Hamilton, $544,050, -0.1%, 1.4%, 50.5%
Tauranga, $687,310, -1.0%, 3.3%, 42.7%
Wellington region, $621,289, 2.6%, 9.8%, 36.3%
Christchurch, $493,899, 0.2%, -1.5%, 30.2%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,105,213, 0.7%, 10.5%, 60.7%
Invercargill, $251,884, 4.6%, 8.0%, 14.2%
Total NZ, $664,698, 3.6%, 6.4%, 60.4%

The QV commentaries

Quotable Value said in its release today its latest monthly house price index “shows nationwide residential property values for November increased 6.4% over the past year, which is a much faster rate of increase than last month’s annual growth of 3.9%.

“Values rose by 3.6% over the past 3 months, which is also much faster than last month, when the market slowed to a quarterly growth of 0.9%.

“The nationwide average value is now $664,485, which is 60.4% above the previous market peak of late 2007. When adjusted for inflation, the nationwide annual increase drops slightly to 4.4% and values are now 33.9% above the 2007 peak.

“Meanwhile, residential property value growth across the Auckland region was down 0.5% year on year, which is the slowest annual rate since March 2011, but values ticked up over the past quarter, rising by 0.4%.

“The average value for the Auckland region is slightly higher than last month at $1,045,741, and values are now on average 91.4% higher than the previous peak of 2007. When adjusted for inflation, values dropped 2.4% over the past year and are 59.7% above the 2007 peak.”

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said: “It appears the spring/summer upturn has finally arrived in the housing market. Nationwide value growth has surged 3.6% over the past 3 months, led by stronger growth in Wellington, Dunedin & many other regional centres around the country.

“Meanwhile, Auckland & Christchurch values also ticked up slightly over the past 3 months, bucking a downward trend seen over the past couple of months.

“However, values in Hamilton & Tauranga ticked down slightly and some areas to the south & north of Auckland that have seen very strong growth in recent years also saw values drop significantly, including the Kaipara & Hauraki districts, both down around 4.0% over the past quarter.”

Banking influences

“The easing in loan:value ratio (LVR) restrictions in January, and retail banks lending criteria, is likely to help improve activity & demand in housing the market as we move through the summer months, but it’s possible the usual slowdown over the Christmas period may mean we don’t see the full impact of this until February & March next year.”

QV on Auckland

QV Auckland senior consultant James Steele said: “There’s been no significant change to the market dynamic since the change of government, values are holding in well located areas while they have dropped back in some areas further out of the city centre.

“An oversupply in some areas of Manukau is continuing to cause a decrease in prices, particularly in large new subdivisions which are above the median house price, while in parts of Waitakere values have also dropped back in some suburbs.

“However, other tightly held areas, particularly in central Auckland, are still doing well and seeing values still rising.

“A lack of pressure on property owners to sell, particularly given low interest rates & solid rental levels, has meant that the large decrease in demand over the past year instigated by LVR restrictions has meant prices have remained relatively flat.

“Across the board, we are still seeing a mixture of strong & weak sales where buyers can be more selective under more ‘normal’ market conditions and, where a particular vendor has a strong desire to sell, a buyer can usually be found, but perhaps at a discount to the market peak.

“Some developers are seeing a gap in the market where they are able to pick up a property at a discount and ‘add value’ through resource consents, taking advantage of the favourable development opportunities presented by the unitary plan.

“However, finance can be an issue in completion of such developments and often they can be offloaded as a ‘ready-to-go’ project to a developer with the financial capacity to see it through.

“Over the next year, if the availability of finance improves and market demand dictates, we would expect to see a number of smallscale, high density infill developments come to the market as more consents are approved.”

Link: Full QV house price index for November 2017

Attribution: QV tables & release.

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Auckland house price index falls, still up nationally

A slowdown – but still rising. That’s the national picture of house price movements from Quotable Value Ltd.

In Auckland, where prices soared ahead of the less meteoric rise in rest of the country and began to slow down sooner, QV’s rolling monthly index has, at best, been stalled this year but otherwise in slight decline.

For the last 3 months, the Auckland index fell 0.5%. From a year ago, it was down 0.6%.

QV said the average value in Auckland was still above $1 million – sitting at $1,038,722 in the 3 months to October – and values on average were 90.1% above the previous peak at the end of 2007.

Adjusted for inflation, Auckland values fell 2.5% over the last year and were 58.6% above the 2007 peak.

Nationally, the index rose 3.9% over the last year – the slowest rate since 2012 – and rose 0.9% over the last 3 months. The national average value for the last year months was $646,807, up 56.1% from the 2007 peak. Adjusted for inflation, the national increase was 2%, and the rise from 2007 30.3%.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said: “The CoreLogic buyer classification data is showing the nationwide share of sales to investors has dropped back to 38.5% from a high of 40.5% in 2014 in favour of first-homebuyers, whose share has risen to 21.6%.”

Auckland market adjustments

In Auckland, QV senior consultant James Steele said: “While the rate of value growth remains subdued, values are relatively stable and there is still strong competition for well presented & located homes, which continue to achieve strong sales prices.

“It appears market activity has returned to more normal levels in outer suburbs, with more properties having asking prices, and there’s more time for buyers to carry out due diligence or get valuations & building inspections.

“Listings levels have also not experienced the usual spring surge, and only those who need to sell appear to be listing properties.

Developers dropping prices

“Some developers who need to sell sections & homes in larger scale greenfield developments are finding they having to drop their prices to achieve sales.

“Examples of this are being seen in Flat Bush, where prices for vacant fully serviced sections that were selling in the high $700,000s last year are now selling in the early $600,000s.

“This drop in land value in the area has also seen the sales prices of completed new homes drop back, and these new homes are also taking longer to sell.”

“It appears the difficulty in gaining finances to purchase due to retail banks’ stricter lending criteria is a contributing factor in this, as well as lower demand for this type of housing product and an over-supply of sections & new homes in the area.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for October. The first percentage is for the 3 months to October, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,038,722, -0.5%, -0.6%, 90.1%
Rodney, $933,909, -1.7%, 1.6%, 59.2%
North, $954,769, -1.8%, 1.5%, 59.0%
Hibiscus Coast, $913,845, -1.5%, 1.9%, 55.6%
North Shore, $1,201,452, -0.1%, -1.6%, 86.2%
Coastal, $1,362,746, -1.3%, -2.0%, 80.8%
Onewa, $981,196, 3.0%, -0.9%, 97.8%
North Harbour, $1,168,764, -1.0%, -0.9%, 92.3%
Waitakere, $818,706, -0.1%, -2.2%, 93.1%
Auckland City, $1,223,913, -0.9%, 1.2%, 96.6%
Central, $1,079,721, -0.3%, 3.8%, 89.6%
East, $1,534,549, -0.7%, 2.5%, 92.6%
South, $1,090,843, -1.4%, -2.0%, 102.6%
Islands (low volume), $1,114,609, 0.8%, 7.9%, 74.4%
Manukau, $893,580, -0.5%, -1.4%, 95.2%
East, $1,151,198, -1.3%, -1.9%, 93.1%
Central, $690,284, 0.5%, -1.2%, 83.6%
North-west, $764,261, -0.4%, -0.6%, 106.9%
Papakura, $684,268, 1.3%, 0.2%, 90.2%
Franklin, $665,843, 1.1%, 3.8%, 68.3%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $495,464, 0.3%, 9.6%, 25.0%
Kaipara (low volume), $505,010, -3.2%, 15.8%, 27.3%
Hamilton, $688,533, 0.9%, 0.2%, 53.1%
Tauranga, $687,241, -0.6%, 5.4%, 42.7%
Wellington region, $738,742, 2.0%, 10.0%, 38.8%
Christchurch, $490,429, -0.9%, -1.6%, 29.3%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,092,736, 0.0%, 12.1%, 58.9%
Invercargill, $247,823, 2.1%, 8.1%, 12.4%
Total NZ, $646,807, 0.9%, 3.9%, 56.1%

Link: QV house price index for October 2017

Attribution: QV release.

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Few shifts in QV house price indexes

Quotable Value’s monthly house price indexes for Auckland are mostly stuck in the ±1% range for the last 3 months, already evident from a tighter auction market, and in today’s monthly index release the government agency looks forward to changes that might arise from the negotiations to secure the Government benches.

“What will be most interesting will be whether a new government supports the relaxing of the Reserve Bank’s loan:value (LVR) restrictions as well as what support policies get rolled out to help first-homebuyers get onto the property escalator.”

There is an expectation in that “property escalator” terminology that buying a house is to buy an investment which will rise in value.

It remains a fact of life that up is good, down is bad. At the same time, the clamour continues for more housing that is cheaper.

The pause in price rises in most of Auckland this year tells you that rises aren’t automatic or continuous, but the conclusion is inescapable that, without firm action to provide far more housing at the bottom of the price scale, escalation is inevitable.

Outside Auckland, the catchup continues, although outliers like Invercargill will never catch up (its index is up 10.9% in the decade since the global financial crisis began, compared to 104% in the southern suburbs on Auckland’s isthmus & 109% in the north-west of the old Manukau City). Even further behind Invercargill in the catchup stakes, Opotiki’s index is down 4% over the last decade and the West Coast is generally down, Greymouth by 14.6% over the last decade.

Around Auckland, the central city & central Manukau were out of kilter, both rising 0.6% over the last 3 months, and the Onewa area on the North Shore rose 0.5%.

Rural Rodney fell 3.9% over the last 3 months but was up 3.7% over 12 months.

For most of the region, shifts for the latest quarter were within a range of 1% up or down.

QV said its national index rose 4.3% over 12 months, reduced to 2.5% when adjusted for inflation, and reduced from 56% to 30.2% net of inflation since the 2007 peak.

In Auckland, the 0.8% gain over 12 months turned into a 1% decline net of inflation. The 90.1% gain since 2007 was reduced to 58.7% net of inflation.

Reductions spread around country

QV national spokesperson David Nagel said in today’s release: “The reductions in quarterly value growth have extended from just the main centres last month to almost all the 15 major urban areas we track, with the exception of Rotorua, Palmerston North, Dunedin & Invercargill.

“The year-on-year growth is still showing double digit gains in many of New Zealand’s provincial towns. However, the quarterly change shows a gradual slowing of the property market in almost all city locations.

“Values are reflecting small decreases in all but a few isolated pockets of Auckland, while Tauranga & Christchurch have also shown a small decline over the past quarter.
“The normal spring surge in property listings still hasn’t eventuated throughout most of the country, and this lack of supply has helped insulate the market from more significant falls in values.

“While the property markets appear to have run out of puff in the main urban areas, there’s still plenty of activity in the smaller provincial towns which were slower getting started.

Policy impacts awaited

“While there is uncertainty around who will govern the country in the coming weeks, there are policies that, if agreed upon under a coalition government, could influence the property market.

“These include a gradual reduction on immigration numbers which has previously helped fuel the property market, particularly in Auckland and the increase in housing supply.

“What will be most interesting will be whether a new government supports the relaxing of the Reserve Bank’s loan:value (LVR) restrictions as well as what support policies get rolled out to help first-homebuyers get onto the property escalator.”

Below, the dollar figure is the average value for September. The first percentage is for the 3 months to September, the second is for the last 12 months and the third is the change since the 2007 peak. For Auckland, QV still works on the old council boundaries:

Auckland region, $1,039,066, -0.6%, 0.8%, 90.1%
Rodney, $939,955, -1.7%, 5.0%, 60.3%
North, $946,744, -3.9%, 3.7%, 57.6%
Hibiscus Coast, $937,359, 0.9%, 6.9%, 59.6%
North Shore, $1,195,052, -0.7%, -1.1%, 85.2%
Coastal, 1,363,735, -0.9%, -0.9%, 81.0%
Onewa, $961,224, 0.5%, -1.5%, 93.8%
North Harbour, $1,167,255, -2.0%, -0.9%, 92.1%
Waitakere, $816,408, -0.9%, -1.0%, 92.5%
Auckland City, $1,226,375, -0.1%, 2.7%, 97.0%
Central, $1,079,348, 0.6%, 5.7%, 89.5%
East, $1,532,259, -0.2%, 3.3%, 92.3%
South, $1,099,479, -0.4%, -0.3%, 104.2%
Islands, $1,088,716, -1.0%, 5.6%, 70.3%
Manukau, $897,957, -0.3%, 0.2%, 96.2%
East, $1,158,720, -0.9%, 0.3%, 94.4%
Central, $688,487, 0.6%, -0.3%, 83.2%
North-west, $771,872, 0.0%, 1.0%, 108.9%
Papakura, $679,072, 0.3%, 1.7%, 88.8%
Franklin, $663,080, -0.6%, 5.4%, 67.6%

Northern border, down country & national:

Whangarei, $500,801, 1.7%, 13.5%, 26.4%
Kaipara (low volume), $515,516, -1.0%, 19.1%, 29.9%
Hamilton, $546,402, 1.3%, 3.2%, 51.1%
Tauranga, $686,759, -0.1%, 6.6%, 42.6%
Wellington region, $606,322, -0.5%, 9.6%, 33.1%
Christchurch, $491,626, -1.0%, -0.8%, 29.6%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,079,748, 0.7%, 12.6%, 57.0%
Invercargill, $244,691, 1.2%, 6.4%, 10.9%
Total NZ, $646,378, 1.1%, 4.3%, 56.0%

Link: Full QV house price index for September 2017

Attribution: QV release.

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Auckland housing off boil but still rising, QV national index up slightly

Quotable Value Ltd’s monthly house price index shows Auckland has come off the boil, but the national index is still rising slightly.

The Auckland index was 2.8% up in August compared to a year ago, the region’s slowest annual growth rate since October 2011, but the index slipped by 0.2% over the last 3 months.

The average Auckland value was $1,041,957 in July, 90.7% above the level when the market previously peaked 10 years ago, but up 59.1% adjusted for inflation. The rise over the last year was 1% when adjusted for inflation.

Nationally, the QV index rose 4.8% over the year, the slowest annual rise since August 2012, and 1.2% over the last 3 months. QV put the national average price at $641,648, up 54.9% on 10 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, the national one-year rise was 3%, the 10-year rise 29.3%.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said today: “In Auckland new subdivisions previously popular with speculators – including those from China – have recently seen lower demand & discounted sales prices….

“It’s likely the annual spring upturn in the market may be slower to arrive, given the pending election, but with the underlying drivers of a lack of supply & high net migration particularly in Auckland still remaining, it’s possible that values may begin to rise again more steadily in the new year.”

Auckland region, $1,041,957, -0.2%, 2.8%, 90.7%
Rodney, $945,934, -1.5%, 8.8%, 61.3%
North, $962,249, -3.2%, 9.1%, 60.2%
Hibiscus Coast, $931,381, 0.1%, 8.5%, 58.6%
North Shore, $1,200,914, 0.2%, 1.5%, 86.1%
Coastal, $1,374,159, 0.3%, 2.1%, 82.4%
Onewa, $956,868, 0.3%, -0.2%, 92.9%
North Harbour, $1,179,806, -0.4%, 2.3%, 94.2%
Waitakere, $816,503, -1.1%, 1.2%, 92.6%
Auckland City, $1,232,779, 0.9%, 4.5%, 98.0%
Central, $1,084,025, 0.8%, 7.1%, 90.3%
East, $1,542,465, 1.2%, 5.2%, 93.6%
South, $1,101,122, 0.5%, 1.4%, 104.6%
Islands (low volume), $1,116,415, 3.9%, 9.3%, 74.6%
Manukau, $899,432, -0.3%, 2.0%, 96.5%
East, $1,167,107, -0.1%, 3.0%, 95.8%
Central, $682,709, -0.2%, 0.5%, 81.6%
North-west, $773,033, -0.2%, 2.0%, 109.2%
Papakura, $666,387, -2.5%, 1.3%, 85.2%
Franklin, $656,665, -2.2%, 5.7%, 66.0%

Northern border, down country & national:
Whangarei, $497,489, 3.0%, 15.7%, 25.5%
Kaipara (low volume), $513,954, -0.1%, 20.3%, 29.6%
Wellington region, $605,435, -0.4%, 12.9%, 32.9%
Christchurch, $493,069, -0.4%, 0.1%, 30.0%
Queenstown-Lakes, $1,098,037, 4.4%, 18.0%, 59.7%
Invercargill, $240,725, -1.0%, 5.3%, 9.1%
Total NZ, $641,648, 1.2%, 4.8%, 54.9%

Link:
Full QV house price index for August 2017

Attribution: Quotable Value.

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