New Zealand’s net migrant inflow continued to slide in October, by nearly 1000 for the month compared to the previous October, and by 10,651 over 12 months compared to the peak of 72,402 reached in the year to July 2017.
The annual net inflow was 61,751, which is around the level in 2015, the second year of a very large 5-year ramping up of immigration.
Over those 5 years, the net inflow of migrants fell just short of 313,000. Over the previous 6 years, which included 2 years of net outflows, the net population gain from immigration was just over 50,000.
Migrant arrivals into Auckland fell in October to 4815 (5250 a year ago), and are down by 3250 on a rolling 12-month basis at 56,451 (59,700).
The net inflow over the 12 months to October rose from 33,230 in 2016 to 36,357 last year, but fell to 30,973. That drop of almost 5400 is equivalent to about 1900 fewer houses needed/year.
The bald statistics, this October & October year compared last:
Net migrant inflow October: 6668 (7650)
Net migrant inflow October year: 61,751 (70,694); the peak was 72,402 in the 12 months to July 2017)
Migrants into Auckland in October: 4815 (5250)
Migrants into Auckland in October year: 56,451 (59,700)
Net Auckland inflow in October: 3265 (3709)
Net Auckland inflow in October year: 30,973 (36,357)
Net trans-Tasman flows in October: net outflow of 48 (inflow of 256); NZ citizens 452 (226) net outflow, non-citizens 404 (482) net inflow
Net trans-Tasman flows in October year: net outflow 1879 (22 outflow); NZ citizens net outflow 6612 (5187), non-citizens net inflow 4733 (5165)
Overall net flows in October: NZ citizens net inflow 255 (632), non-citizens net inflow 6413 (7018)
Overall net flows in October year: NZ citizens net outflow 3144 (1417), non-citizens net inflow 64,895 (72,111)
Total arrivals, month & year: 10,881 (11,740); 128,123 (131,644)
Total departures, month & year: 4213 (4090); 66,372 (60,950).
Schedules change for different way of counting
Statistics NZ announced 2 new information release schedules today as a result of the ending of departure cards from 5 November.
It will publish statistics on short-term movements (including the current international visitor arrivals report) in a new international travel release, and long-term movements in a new international migration release.
Both releases will be published on the same day, up to 30 working days after the reference month. November data, previously published just before Christmas, will now be published in January, and December data in February.
The new release schedule largely reflects the need to use the integrated date infrastructure to provide place-of-residence in New Zealand for migrants & short-term resident travellers, which replaces information from the departure card. The timing is also affected by the new method to produce ‘provisional’ migration estimates.
Statistics NZ said the release in January would fully adopt the outcomes-based measure of migration, first released in May 2017. This measure looks at the travel history of a passenger over a 16-month follow-up period, and classifies a border-crossing according to how long they spent in New Zealand rather than relying on the stated intention on the passenger cards.
‘Final’ migration estimates, based on the ‘12/16-month rule’ and released today on Infoshare, are now updated to June 2017.
Explanation of new approach: Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories
Attribution: Statistics NZ release & tables.