A few negatives have slipped into the house price equation – in Auckland, that is. The rest of the country’s had plenty of housing negatives right through the global financial crisis & beyond.
Quotable Value Ltd’s monthly residential value index rose just 0.1% nationally over the last 3 months and remains 2.8% below the 2007 peak when adjusted for inflation. But in March that national index was down 0.4%.
QV said today Auckland was 28% above the previous peak, and 10.5% above, net of inflation. The region stayed positive – up 0.6% in March, up 0.9% over 3 months, up 14.3% for the year – but the combined performance of all the main urban areas was a 0.3% decline in March.
The indexes for the Hauraki Gulf islands, Manukau & Papakura also declined in March – the islands by 0.3%, Manukau overall by 0.2% and its eastern suburbs by 0.9%, Papakura by 0.4%.
Outside Auckland & Christchurch, that’s nothing.
Around most of the South Island, you can buy an average house for a bit (or a lot) less than a squashed section is likely to cost in most of Auckland. In many South Island districts, house prices are well below the level when the global financial crisis hit 7 years ago – down 16.8% in Kaikoura, 12% in Marlborough, 11.9% in Southland. Dunedin is somehow 1.2% ahead of the 2007 level although 3 of the city’s 4 components have fallen, the southern suburbs by 3.2%. Rural Taieri has risen 2.6%.
From an average house price of $290,000 in Dunedin, the average in Christchurch is $448,000. The house price index for Christchurch is up 18.1% from 7 years ago, and up 32.5% in Selwyn, 25.3% in Waimakariri.
QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said, “The loan:value ratio speed limits and the Reserve Bank signalling further interest rate hikes is likely to be contributing to a levelling off in the growth of property values in Auckland and, for the first time in more than 2 years, we are seeing a decrease in some areas of that market.”
In the southern suburbs on the isthmus (Onehunga through to Epsom), the index gain in 7 years was 36%. In the last 3 months the index has dropped 0.5%, but it clawed back 0.2% in March. From the previous peak until this March, the southern isthmus has picked up just under $200,000 in average house price, from $538,305 to $732,046.
The index for Manukau’s eastern suburbs is up 28.7% from the 2007 peak, and was up 4.8% over 6 months. However, it’s dropped by 0.6% in 3 months and 0.9% in March. Despite that, its price peak has risen from $596,015 to $766,956 over 7 years.
Ms Rush said a number of factors had come into play recently: “Home loan approvals nationwide are down about 10% on the same time last year, overall sales volumes are similarly down and the amount of activity from first-homebuyers around the country is also well down on what it was prior to the loan:value ratio speed limits being applied in October.
“The New Zealand price index is showing a slight tick downwards, which doesn’t represent a nationwide drop in values but rather a reflection of the impact of a drop in the Christchurch price index.
“We suspect this is due to the rating revaluation of Christchurch released in March, in which there was an increase in the overall rating value of the city. This probably explains the sharp downward movement of the Christchurch index this month, and next month the real trend will be clear.”
The figures below show the average value at March 2014 and changes nationally, for the whole of Auckland and around the region based on old council boundaries (and including Kaipara, immediately north of Auckland, Christchurch & the national figures) over the last 3 months, over the last 12 months and since the 2007 market peak.
The average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It’s not an average or median sales price.
Kaipara, $328,581, 0.7%, 7.9%, -17.2%
Rodney, $654,079, 2.0%, 10.8%, 11.5%
Rodney North, $664,700, 2.8%, 12.4%, 10.7%
Hibiscus Coast, $645,390, 1.3%, 9.4%, 9.9%
North Shore, $825,287, 0.6%, 14.6%, 27.9%
Coastal, $947,285, 0.4%, 14.6%, 25.7%
Onewa, $660,957, 0.3%, 15.6%, 33.3%
North Harbour, $797,229, 1.5%, 13.7%, 31.2%
Waitakere, $548,683, 2.0%, 17.7%, 29.4%
Auckland City, $826,721, 0.5%, 13.8%, 32.8%
Central, $742,345, 2.4%, 12.5%, 30.3%
East, $1,035,956, 1.1%, 14.9%, 30.0%
South, $732,046, -0.5%, 13.8%, 36.0%
Islands, $729,114, -1.4%, 9.6%, 14.1%
Manukau, $580,572, 0.9%, 14.9%, 26.8%
East, $766,956, -0.6%, 13.7%, 28.7%
Central, $447,729, 2.6%, 15.4%, 19.1%
North-west, $477,518, 1.6%, 16.6%, 29.2%
Papakura, $426,442, 1.8%, 14.7%, 18.5%
Franklin, $457,363, 2.6%, 13.5%, 15.6%
NZ, $466,665, 0.1%, 8.8%, 12.6%
Auckland region, $699,659, 0.9%, 14.3%, 28.0%.
Attribution: QV release.