November net migrant inflow down 40%, annual rate down 19% as new measure kicks in

If you mix 2 different methods of measuring migration – and even if you use only the new measure – New Zealand suffered an extreme decline in its population gain in November. Statistics NZ’s calculations for that month, out today, are the first where it measures everything by the outcomes-based measure, which fully replaces the intentions-based method.

The last figures using the old measure were a net inflow of 6668 for the month of October and 61,751 for the year to October – a drop of 14.7% from the migration peak inflow of 72,402 in the July 2017 year.

The new method starts with a provisional estimate, which is updated over 4 months. A feature of the new figures is the initial lack of precision, hence ± appears everywhere.

Migrant arrivals were provisionally estimated at 144,000 (± 1,300), migrant departures at 100,600 (± 1,200).

The provisional estimates of net migration, this November & year to year November, and the previous, using the new method:

Month: 2672 (4465), down 40.2%

November year: 43,416 (± 1,500), 2017:53,831, so a 19.3% fall assuming the numbers remain precisely as they are today.

Using either measure, therefore, the outcome is a very big drop in the net migrant inflow since the July 2017 peak.

Under the outcomes-based measure, annual arrivals have been in the range of 140-144,000/year for the last 4 years. In 2010-12, arrivals were around 94-95,000/year.

Departures jumped from 82-88,000/year in 2009-10 to 100-102,000/year in 2011-12, then fell below 90,000/year for the next 5 years, dropping to 73,000 in 2014. This year, however, exits have jumped from 89,000 to almost 101,000, so the big change in net inflow is the emigration rate.

Note: This is a basic story. I’ll write a fuller version once I’ve been through all the figures. If you want to see what all these statistics look like at the official end, click the link below.

Link: Statistics NZ, November migration details

Attribution: Statistics NZ release & tables.

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