Statistics NZ’s estimate of the net inflow of migrants has risen 35% – 15,000 more immigrants – from its first count for the 12 months to November through to its rolling 12-month count to January.
The net loss of NZ citizens in the 12 months to January was 7700 (± 800) – 36,400 returning, 44,100 leaving. Non-citizen arrivals were 115,300 (± 1,300), departures 49,100 (± 800), for a net gain of 66,100 (± 1,400). Alongside those numbers, there are much higher numbers of “don’t knows”.
The Government agency had been running a trial model until those November figures were released in January.
At first it looked as though the net inflow of migrants had dived. Now the annual tally is rising, on adjustments, changing again on Friday.
Below, how the figures have progressively changed month to month:
The November 2018 estimate of net migrant inflow has risen from 2672, as reported first, to 3423 and now to 5486.
The December figure started at 3052 and has risen to 5265 on its first review.
The January figure is 9243, so far published once, last Friday.
The annual count, also to be updated over 4 months, has progressively declined over the last 18 months (the current calculations go back to August 2017), from a net inflow of 57,200. Or, that’s what you would have concluded after the first count on the new model in January.
In that January count, the net inflow for the 12 months to November 2018 (first count) was 43,416. In February’s second count, it rose to 47,998. In March’s third count it rose to 53,788.
The first count of the figure for the 12 months to December, calculated in February, was 48,278. This month it was adjusted upward to 56,229.
Now we have the figures for the 12 months to January, first & only count, 58,391.
Statistics NZ provisionally estimated migrant arrivals for the 12 months to January at 151,600 (±1500), departures at 93,200 (±1100).
Population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers said 81% of the nearly 14 million border movements (inward & outward both counted) could be definitively classified as short-term or long-term when the provisional estimates were first released on 15 February. “The remaining 19%, or 2.6 million movements, were classified using our statistical model. In this release, the number of movements requiring modelling in the December 2018 year was down to 15% or 2.1 million.”
Under the previous model, Statistics NZ provided figures for migration into & out of Auckland (& elsewhere), a highly relevant guide for numerous local calculations – housing, business, infrastructure. Those are not being provided at the moment.
15 February 2019: Migrant inflow up as exit count adjusted down
25 January 2019: November net migrant inflow down 40%, annual rate down 19% as new measure kicks in
Attribution: Statistics NZ tables & release.