The rises in Auckland residential values have gone beyond 80% since the 2007 peak for the whole Auckland region, and 100% in part of Manukau. On the borders it remains a different story, though the figures for the last quarter show some catch-up – or less of the falling behind.
On the northern border, both Kaipara & Whangarei show a 6.4% gain over those 9 years, but 6% (Whangarei) & 5.1% (Kaipara) in the 3 months to July.
Heading south, the Waikato district’s values have risen 28.6% over the 9 years, 4.2% in the last 3 months. Values in Hamilton have risen 8.9% in the last 3 months, Tauranga 6.6%, but there are still many rural districts where values remain well short of those reached in 2007.
Quotable Value Ltd’s house price index shows much of the North Shore above $1.1 million, all the isthmus above $1 million and some of Manukau at $1.1 million.
The average for the whole Auckland region reached $992,207, up from $975,087 in June. Nationally, the average rose from $590,909 in June to $602,434.
QV said the Auckland index, adjusted for inflation, was up 15.5% in the last year, 54.2% since 2007, and the national index was up 13.7% for the year, 23.5% since 2007.
QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said yesterday: “The latest QV house price index shows values continue to rise rapidly in many parts of New Zealand, buoyed by low interest rates, strong investor activity & high net migration, with the average value nationwide now topping $600,000.
“Hamilton, Queenstown Lakes & Tauranga have seen some of the highest growth, with Hamilton values rising 31.5% since July 2015, nearly twice as fast as Auckland, which rose 16% over the same period.
“The Auckland market, however, has continued to accelerate – up more than 5% over the past 3 months.
“Meanwhile, the Wellington & Dunedin residential property markets also continue to show strong growth. Christchurch, by comparison, is showing much more moderate value growth and, along with supply meeting demand for homes in the city, there’s now an oversupply of rental properties, which is resulting in a downward trend in rents there.
“It’s too soon to tell what impact the Reserve Bank’s new 40% deposit requirement for anyone purchasing a property they do not intend to live in, will have on the market. However, there are reports the new rules have already led to some offers being withdrawn by investors in parts of the country.”
Severe listings shortage in Auckland
QV homevalue registered valuer James Wilson said of the Auckland index: “Throughout July, the Auckland residential market has been characterised by a severe shortage of listings, which could be due to fewer people listing their properties for sale during the wet winter months & strong value growth.
“This seasonal shortage of listings has further strengthened demand for good quality stock, and homeowners appear to be favouring staying put for the time being and utilising the equity within their property to fund renovations rather than selling to upgrade.
“Increasingly we are witnessing unconditional offers being made in order to secure a property without completing adequate due diligence. This behaviour is driven by a growing fear of missing out, which is rife across the market.
“Whilst it is still too early to have evidence of the market impact of the further strengthening of loan:value ratio (LVR) restrictions announced by the Reserve Bank during July, some investors have said they are entering a ‘wait & see’ holding pattern.
“Given the LVR strengthening, and Reserve Bank rhetoric regarding the potential of debt:income ratios, we would urge investors to conduct adequate analysis of the long-term investment returns that any potential property can achieve.”
Hamilton commuter demand spreads to Raglan
“We are continuing to see strong demand for properties in the lower value price bracket ($4-600,000) and increasingly strong demand in the high value bracket suburbs such as Flagstaff, Rototuna & Huntington.
“Hamilton homebuyers & investors continue to purchase in nearby towns within commuting distance to the city, which is driving values up in places such as Te Awamutu, Morrinsville & Ngaruawahia. Raglan is experiencing an increase in property values similar to the rest of the Waikato district & the Hamilton market.”
Some regional & national figures, around Auckland on the old council boundaries, and what’s happening at the neighbours – the latest average value & index shifts in the last 3 months, last 12 months & since the 2007 peak:
Whangarei, $421,750, 6.0%, 19.9%, 6.4%
Kaipara, $422,295, 5.1%, 15.1%, 6.4%
Rodney, $859,303, 2.8%, 16.0%, 46.5%
North, $874,992, 3.4%, 16.9%, 45.7%
Hibiscus Coast, $844,826, 2.2%, 15.0%, 43.8%
North Shore, $1,160,094, 15.1%, 5.3%, 79.8%
Coastal, $1,322,798, 5.5%, 15.2%, 75.5%
Onewa, $937,297, 6.1%, 13.8%, 89.0%
North Harbour, $1,126,152, 3.9%, 16.8%, 85.3%
Waitakere, $782,039, 3.7%, 13.8%, 84.4%
Auckland City, $1,163,464, 5.6%, 14.6%, 86.9%
Central, $1,003,978, 4.8%, 14.9%, 76.3%
East, $1,453,988, 5.5%, 14.8%, 82.4%
South, $1,060,567, 6.4%, 14.0%, 97.0%
Islands, $982,998, 5.6%, 18.1%, 53.8%
Manukau, $859,005, 5.7%, 20.0%, 87.7%
East, $1,100,754, 5.7%, 18.2%, 84.7%
Central, $662,182, 4.5%, 19.4%, 76.2%
North-west, $741,947, 6.5%, 23.6%, 100.8%
Papakura, $638,678, 4.9%, 21.1%, 77.5%
Franklin, $613,696, 3.3%, 15.1%, 55.2%
Auckland region, $992,207, 5.2%, 16.0%, 81.6%
Waikato, $389,220, 4.2%, 27.5%, 28.6%
Hamilton, $513,094, 8.9%, 31.5%, 41.9%
Tauranga, $615,625, 6.6%, 25.7%, 27.9%
Queenstown Lakes, $910,974, 8.1%, 27.0%, 32.5%
Total NZ, $602,434, 6.1%, 14.1%, 45.4%
The full set of statistics for all New Zealand for July: QV House Price Index (HPI) for July 2016 (note: I run the figures in order of most recent to oldest; QV runs them 12 months, latest 3 months, since 2007 peak)
Attribution: QV release.