The Housing Industry Association of Australia is forecasting a slump in housebuilding over the next 3 years.
In its forecast, out today, the association said there were 228,000 housing starts last year but the figure should fall to 201,000 this year and to a range between 174-180,000 over the next 3 years.
The decline would be nationwide this years and continue on the eastern seaboard in 2018, when the forecast falls are 21.7% in New South Wales, 18.2% in Victoria & 8.6% in Queensland. A further 5.7% fall is forecast for New South Wales in 2019, with real recovery nationally only starting in 2020.
The association calculated that building starts peaked at 231,000/year in the March 2016 quarter, then began easing. However, the detached housing sector had remained resilient, with 29,600 starts in the September quarter for a total 116,000 over 12 months.
The decline has been in multi-unit developments in Victoria & Queensland. That sector’s cyclical bottom is forecast for the 12 months to September 2019, with 68,400 starts.
The association will release its national & state outlook reports next Wednesday, 8 March.
Attribution: HIA release.